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China’s wealthy look to move money out as economy declines

Via The Seattle Times : The practice is called Smurfing, and it is part of an exodus of capital that is casting doubt on China’s economic prospects and shaking global markets.

As the Chinese economy stumbles, wealthy families are increasingly trying to move large sums of money out of the country, worried that the value of the currency will fall and their savings will be worth less.

To get around the country’s cash controls, individuals are asking friends or relatives to carry or transfer out $50,000 apiece, the annual legal limit in China. A group of 100 people can move $5 million overseas.

The practice is called Smurfing, named after the blue, mushroom-dwelling cartoon characters, and it is part of an exodus of capital that is casting doubt on China’s economic prospects and shaking global markets. In the past year, companies and individuals have moved nearly $1 trillion out of China.

Some methods are legal, such as investing in real estate elsewhere, buying businesses overseas and paying off debts owed in dollars. Others, such as Smurfing, are more dubious, and in certain cases, illegal. Chinese customs officials caught a woman last year trying to leave the mainland with $250,000 strapped to her chest and thighs and hidden inside her shoes.

If the government cannot keep citizens from rushing to the financial exits, China’s outlook could darken. The swell of outflows is a destabilizing force in China’s slowing economy, threatening to undermine confidence and hurt a banking system struggling to deal with a decadelong lending binge.

The capital flight is putting significant pressure on the country’s currency, the renminbi. The government is trying to prevent a free fall in the currency by stepping into the markets and tapping its huge cash hoard to shore up the renminbi. But a deep erosion of those reserves may set off further outflows and create turbulence in the markets.

Threat to stability

China is also trying to put the brakes on outflows, by tightening its grip on the country’s links to the global financial system. The government, for example, just started to clamp down on people’s use of bank cards to buy overseas life-insurance policies.

Such moves have trade-offs. The limits create concerns that the government is pulling back on overhaul efforts that China needs to keep growth humming in the decades to come. But the near-term pressure also requires serious attention, given the global shock waves.

“The currency has become a very near-term threat to financial stability,” said Charlene Chu, an economist at Autonomous Research.

Navigating such problems is fairly new for China.

For years, China soaked up much of the world’s investment money, as the economy grew at annual rates in the double digits. A largely closed financial system kept China’s money corralled inside the country.

With growth slowing, money is gushing out of the country. And the government has a looser grip on the spigot, because China dismantled some currency restrictions to open up its economy in recent years.

“Companies don’t want renminbi and individuals don’t want renminbi,” said Shaun Rein, founder of the China Market Research Group. “The renminbi was a sure bet for a long time, but now that it’s not, a lot of people want to get out.”

Managing the situation has proved complicated for the government.

China abruptly devalued the renminbi by 4 percent in August as part of a shift to a more market-oriented approach and to help exporters. But that surprise move set off sharp stock falls.

The government then tried to guide the currency down in quieter fashion, with the renminbi falling 2.8 percent over five weeks that ended in early January. Even so, the stealthy move led to a sell-off, as global investors fretted about the Chinese economy.

Currency headwinds

The renminbi still faces plenty of headwinds.

The government has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, making it less attractive for savers to keep their money in the country. Corporate profits are shrinking because China has too many spare steel mills, car factories and empty houses, leading investors to seek better returns elsewhere.

Ronald Wan, a Hong Kong money manager who is on the boards of numerous state-owned enterprises in mainland China, said pessimism was becoming the consensus.

“Among the companies I have been in contact with,” he said, “all of them have the intention of moving money out of the country.”

The government’s next move, in part, will depend on whether it can stem the outflows, or at least slow them significantly. And in China, it is a bit of a cat-and-mouse game.

Individuals can move $50,000 a year across China’s borders. Companies and sophisticated investors have more freedom to send out money legally for big-ticket purchases and investments.

But unofficial methods abound.

Companies have inflated trade invoices to keep more profits outside the country, although Chinese authorities have cracked down on the practice.

Two years ago, the government gave permission for insurers to invest 15 percent of their assets overseas, up from 1.5 percent. But China told insurers this winter to suspend many of their overseas plans, according to Hong Kong financiers.

China has restricted the withdrawal of renminbi from overseas branches of Chinese banks.

In January, Zou Tai, a hospital worker from east central China, caught a morning flight to buy a $50,000 life-insurance policy in Hong Kong. Scores of Chinese customers have been doing the same to get money out of the country, since the policy is bought in renminbi and can be cashed out in U.S. dollars.

“The buying power of the renminbi keeps dropping,” Zou said. “I feel that China’s leaders will have no choice but to devalue the renminbi.”

Zou acted in the nick of time, because the government is balking. UnionPay International, a government-controlled bank-card company, recently said it would start strictly enforcing a pre-existing but widely ignored limit on overseas insurance purchases of $5,000 a year per card.

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